AMERICAN EXPRESS CHEATSHEET: Bets, Weather, Underdog Drafts, DraftKings Notes
2026 American Express Cheatsheet
WINNER
Henley +2500
Griffin +2700
Si WOOO +4000
N. Taylor +8000
BOMBS
Smalley +10000 (With 8 Places)
M. McCarty +12500 (With 8 Places)
Keefer +12500 (With 8 Places)
Kirk +20000 (With 8 Places)
Bauchou +100000 (With 8 Places)
FIRST ROUND LEADER
NONE THIS WEEK
2026 American Express HOT LINKS
AMEX Bets, Weather & One-and-Done
AMEX Picks, Bets, Sony Recap
AMEX DraftKings Picks & Underdog Drafts
AMEX Research, Sleepers & Course Breakdown
NFL Champ Games Spread Picks, Cust Corner, Judge Cust
2026 American Express PICKS
Russell Henley — He’s never experienced the success you’d expect from him at PGA West, but, he hasn’t played this event since 2022 and he did come T14 that season. Now four years in the future, Henley’s a top 10 player in the world and still possesses the accuracy, wedges, and putting that are over-indexed at this tournament. Originally, I was set to bet Ben Griffin, since I had them rated about the same. Then, Henley opened with the bigger number so I went there.
Ben Griffin — Then I woke up Wednesday morning and Griffin had slid down the betting board, so it’s both now! Obviously, Griffin has taken a leap over the 12 months. He’s now a three-time winner and now returns to a site which was plenty comfortable for him before he was a Top 10 ranked player in the world. Griffin’s gotten better in each of his three AMEX starts (T7/T9/T32), on the back of excellent putting performances on the greens at the stadium course. In six career rounds he’s gaining a gaudy +2.37 SG:PUTT/Round. Now, in 2026, Griffin has morphed into a top tier T2G player as well, while excelling from 50-125 yards. A proximity range seen more at this event than any other on TOUR.
Si WOO Kim — A former champ, Si WOOOOOOO as on fire ball striking over the weekend at Sony and has a history of beating up on Pete Dye tracks. Now, his putter remained as bad as usual, but he does have a history of rolling it well at PGA West. He’s gained on these greens four of he past five years, averaging +1.75 SG PUTT/round in those years.
Nick Taylor — Fresh off a respectable title defense at Sony, Taylor too has tumbled down on the odds board. This is an irons and putting event, the two traits Taylor seems to spike in every half year or so.
Alex Smalley — Normally, I’d hesitate to back Smalley at an event which requires so anyone-putts to get into contention, yet, after digging into his putting splits, Smalley’s best surface is actually Poa Trivialis where he’s gained +0.31 Strokes putting per round over the last year. Smalley is wildly inconsistent but has been solid tee-to-green and has the ability to spike with two Top 5 finishes in his past four starts. Very sneakily 3rd in SG: TOTAL on Pete Dye courses over the past three year too.
Johnny Keefer & Matt McCarty — Two players who have seen their odds more than double from a week ago despite excellent ball striking performances. McCarty gained over two strokes on approach despite hitting the most costly approach shot of the week (Round 2 approach on No. 9). The putter and chipping let him down despite that being a part of his game where he’s consistently proficient. While the sample is small on Keefer his profile is: Great ball striker, poor around the greens, and inconsistent with the putter. The firmer greens may exclude any bad chipping performance from a victory this week, but Keefer will generate enough birdie chances to potentially rise with a hot putting performance. Plus, both have experience in these shootouts from excellent KFT careers.
Chris Kirk — Struggled out of the gate in Hawaii through no fault of his ball striking. When someone like Rico Hoey loses two strokes a round on and around the greens, it’s expected. When Kirk does it, you squint, chalk it up to a bad week, and assume he gets back to his normal self.
Zach Bauchou — Since I didn’t play any first round leaders, Bauchou becomes my weekly donation. He went on a birdie barrage to make the weekend at Sony, put together a decent Saturday and gave it all back Sunday. He won late last year on KFT and show me enough with birdie streaks to show how can go low. Can he do it for four rounds? Oh God, no. But 2.5 and hold on to a Top 8 at 200/1? Probably not, also.
2026 American Express WEATHER
Stark difference from last week. Here’s the worst stretch of weather the players will encounter this week
Windtower: La Quinta
2026 American Express DRAFTKINGS
This is a real to Scottie or not week since he’s $14,200. I have decided no to Scottie, Cantlay and Ludvig and made lineups that way. A reminder to everyone using Scheffler, as Alex Blickle pointed out on the DK Show, if you use Scottie, those 5%-15% low 7K/mid 6K players will correlated to a higher degree in all Scottie lineups since you’ll need to scatter shot that area to make rosters work.
For example, Mac Meissner is projected around 11%-13% owned. That means he’ll probably be in something like 25%-35% of lineups featuring Scheffler.
Stats & Tools Provided by Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole
2026 American Express UNDERDOG
Last week introduced the new full-tournament Underdog Drafts. This week introduces the NEW PME CLASSIC RAKE FREE Underdog drafts. $20 per draft, 5-Max, No Rake, Flat payouts. Since this is supposed to be a community type contest, only 10% goes to the winner to
Under: Drafts → PGA
